Instead of kick-starting a revival, Chelsea’s 2-0 victory over Arsenal now seems like the anomaly: a brief reminder of a peak that has fallen away with alarming speed. The visit of Southampton - whose defensive organisation, passion and aerial dominance make them Chelsea’s antithesis - is another dangerous fixture for Jose Mourinho.
Much of Chelsea’s form can be attributed to psychological factors and a fractional depletion of desire. As various world-class professionals flounder in their respective roles at Stamford Bridge, a collective passion at Southampton is reflected in their superb defensive organisation and ability to bounce back from losing matches and losing players. It speaks volumes that Chelsea currently sit bottom of the table for interceptions made (11.6 per match) while Southampton sit in third (20.3 per match).
Minute deficiencies in mental focus are brutally punished at the elite level, and the most easily recognisable form of this is at set-pieces. Chelsea have conceded from corners in each of their last two matches (Porto and Newcastle) and have conceded five headers this season (more than any other Premier League club).
Tactically astute and adaptive in his approach, Ronald Koeman will be aware that this is an area to be exploited. Southampton have scored the most headers in the Premier League (4) and win more aerial duels per match (19.4) than any club bar Aston Villa. Furthermore, they attempt the most crosses (27 per game) in the league and in Graziano Pelle possess a striker who wins more headers than all but three forwards in England’s top flight. It is fair to say that, aerially, Southampton hold a huge advantage.
Southampton’s aerial prowess is largely explained by Koeman’s focus on long, direct passing and counter-attacking speed. With Pelle as the fulcrum, they are superb at angling long passes with Mourinho-esque clinical organisation; it's no coincidence that they hold the third longest pass average (20 metres) and complete fewer dribbles (6.9 per match) than any other Premier League club. As shown in the performance against Man United a fortnight ago, Sadio Mane’s powerful surges through the centre of the park are a vital component of this approach. Morgan Schneiderlin and Michael Carrick struggled to cope with his sneaky movement into the gaps and muscular runs between the lines, and it seems highly unlikely that either Cesc Fabregas or John Obi Mikel – both looking recklessly naïve in central midfield this season – will be able to stop him.
It is easy to imagine that, as Mane surges forward, Pelle wins those long balls and Tadic hurls crosses into the box, Chelsea will struggle to cope with Koeman’s team. Another damaging defeat is certainly possible.
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