1. Change will be good for Arsenal
It will undoubtedly be weird seeing anyone other than Arsene Wenger manage Arsenal. Yet Unai Emery won't have the expectation problems that David Moyes did at Manchester United, and arguably a big reason to take the job was the prospect of getting much more from the talented group of players he has inherited. There are diamonds to polish at the Emirates.
Equally, you could say he has an imbalanced squad that a coach could tie himself in knots trying to get the best from, and a set of players who might be difficult to jolt out of their complacency. It could go surprisingly well; it could be a struggle. Either way, it’s better than the stagnation in the latter days under Wenger: at least it will be something different to the same thing over and over, to the slow erosion of a great manager’s reputation.
2. Fabianski will be the bargain of the season
What does £7m get you these days? About 11% of Alisson, and probably not a useful 11%. A couple of ribs, or something. Maybe a kneecap. Certainly not one of his arms. But you can get a whole Lukasz Fabianski, and of all West Ham’s transfer business this summer – which looks pretty comprehensive – this looks like the biggest bargain.
It’s always slightly difficult to assess how good a goalkeeper in a terrible team is, because of the 10 fumblers in front of him, but Fabianski was one of the few players to emerge from Swansea with any credit. The Hammers will feel much more secure with him in nets than Joe Hart.
3. ‘Love train’ corner ends with players tripping over each other
Mercifully it looks like most teams have learned lessons from the annals of bad World Cup transfers, and not signed anyone on the basis of a good summer in Russia. However, we’ll undoubtedly see some trends from the World Cup repeated in the Premier League – and one of them might be the emphasis on set-pieces.
That will mean at least one team will try England’s ‘love train’ corner routine, where three or four players line up behind each other and then scatter as the ball is played in, aiming to create chaos in the defence. Naturally, though, someone will get it wrong, trip over and end up in a great big penalty-area heap. Hopefully, for everyone else’s sake, Harry Maguire isn’t the man on top.
READ 10 World Cup star signings... who turned out to be total failures
4. Burnley will struggle against relegation
Without wishing to diminish their achievement, it probably says more about the rest of the Premier League that Burnley not only finished seventh, but stayed there after going 11 games without a win in the middle of the season, and also lost three of their last five games.
Sean Dyche’s side were solid and admirable, but there’s no obvious whipping boy in the division, teams around them have improved and Burnley have left it late to do their transfer business (Joe Hart and Ben Gibson arrived this week). Throw in the potential ballache of Sunday-Thursday-Sunday football and extra games that the Europa League brings, and we could see a big drop-off in Burnley’s fortunes this season. Next, they face a tough two-legged affair against Istanbul Basaksehir in the third qualifying round.
5. Benitez to stay and continue working miracles
The greatest fear for most Newcastle fans these days is that Rafa Benitez will decide that working under Mike Ashley is simply too much bother, and will depart. However, there's also a temptation to think that if Benitez was going to jack it in, he would’ve done by now.
There’s also a sense that the Spaniard is sort of trapped in the job: a combination of him being a football and work obsessive, and his family living in England means his options are relatively limited. He’ll stay, and as long as he’s there, Newcastle will continue to overachieve.
SEE ALSO Where does the money go at Newcastle United? Why the Magpies are playing a dangerous game
6. Everyone will love James Maddison
A year or so ago, Maddison was in a bit of a state. His move from Coventry to Norwich hadn’t gone as planned, he’d been shipped out on loan a couple of times and was getting a reputation as a man whose ego outstripped his talent. But he knuckled down, ditched the attitude and became one of the Championship’s best players.
So much so that Leicester decided a 21-year-old who’d never played in the Premier League was worth up to £25m. But he could be worth every penny: here is a player who is brilliant in tight situations, who isn’t slow but doesn’t rely on pace, and is stepping into a team who need a new creative leader after the sale of Riyad Mahrez. It wouldn’t be a shock if he was in the England team by May.
7. Two promoted clubs will finish in the top half
Beneath the elite, the Premier League is a large bowl of mediocrity soup. The odd crouton of quality bobs to the surface every now and then, but it’s broadly banal broth. The 21-point gap between seventh-placed Burnley and relegated Swansea was the same as the gap between Burnley and Liverpool in fourth.
One thing that means is basically anyone outside the top six can finish anywhere, which includes the three sides promoted from the Championship. Cardiff will be the outliers, Neil Warnock’s parsimonious upstarts are favourites for relegation, but Fulham and Wolves are building squads comparable with anyone outside the top six. At least one of them – possibly both of them – will do very well.
8. Maurizio Sarri will be a calamity
Chelsea were pretty lucky that the World Cup kept us all entertained over the summer, because otherwise, allowing their managerial saga to spill over into pre-season training would have received much more negative attention.
There were reasons for the delay in removing Antonio Conte, of course, but that doesn’t change the fact that Maurizio Sarri has been given something of a hospital pass for his introduction to English football. An imbalanced squad; only one signing before August; Thibaut Courtois reportedly AWOL and minimal time to prepare: all of this points to another pre-Christmas sacking at Stamford Bridge.
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9. Liverpool will contrive to win nothing
It all seems too perfect. After years of relative austerity for such a big club, Liverpool have cut loose with the finances and spent plenty since January. And not just spent plenty: spent sensibly, addressing problems in their squad and filling the gaps with the best players realistically available.
Everything makes sense. And yet this is Liverpool. No league title for 28 years, and in recent times their record in cup finals isn’t so hot either. We can’t show our working here: sometimes you just have to go on vibes. Despite all the logic, all the sense, all the ostensibly refined planning, they’ll end up with nothing. Probably.
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10. Mourinho will leave Manchester United on October 22
It doesn’t exactly take an expert reviewer of trends and behaviour to spot that we’ve seen this before. Jose Mourinho’s demeanour over the summer would charitably be described as ‘downbeat’; a man dissatisfied with life and lashing out at anyone and everyone.
Sending coded messages to the board is one thing, but picking weird fights with players like Antonio Valencia and loosely accusing half his squad of slacking is something else entirely. It’s all starting to look familiar to Chelsea fans – a pattern they saw three years ago, and which ended with a title-holding manager sacked in December, crying betrayal.
Manchester United play Mourinho’s old side on the weekend of October 20: a bad start to the season, downtrodden players not exactly enthused about fighting for their manager and a symbolic defeat against old friends – it all seems too clear. He’ll be gone by the Monday.
READ Why Jose Mourinho has finally picked a battle that he can’t win
