The Ballon d'Or 2023 power ranking is fascinating reading, with Lionel Messi set to become the first-ever Major League Soccer winner.
We're well and truly out of the duopoly era, now. From 2008 to 2021, Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo dominated the Ballon d'Or with only Luka Modric breaking their stronghold in 2018. Last autumn saw Karim Benzema lift France's for the first time since Zinedine Zidane – but this time, it looks like Leo's final hurrah.
Despite Manchester City winning a treble, however, a Citizen won't be lifting the award…
The full Ballon d'Or 2023 rankings:
30. Ruben Dias
= 28. Randal Kolo Muani
= 28. Martin Odegaard
27. Nicolo Barella
26. Jamal Musiala
25. Josko Gvardiol
24. Bukayo Saka
23. Andre Onana
22. Kim Min-jae
21. Antoine Griezmann
20. Lautaro Martinez
19. Harry Kane
18. Jude Bellingham
17. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
16. Karim Benzema
15. Emi Martinez
14. Ilkay Gundogan
13. Yassine Bounou
12. Robert Lewandowski
11. Mohamed Salah
10. Luka Modric
9. Bernardo Silva
8. Victor Osimhen
7. Julian Alvarez
6. Vinicius Jr
5. Rodri
4. Kevin De Bruyne
3. Kylian Mbappe
2. Erling Haaland
1. Lionel Messi
Bookies' odds for the Ballon d'Or
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1. Lionel Messi (1/14)
Still the favourite for the Ballon d'Or has seven of the award already in his cabinet at home. He could well extend the record of most wins to eight, too, having inspired Argentina to a World Cup title in the 2022/23.
OK, so Paris Saint-Germain did nothing in Europe once more: Lionel Messi won the Golden Ball at the World Cup though, becoming the first player to ever win it twice. Messi could well be the first player to win the trophy playing for a US club, now that he's set to join MLS.
It's not been a vintage season – but that didn't matter when he won it in 2021 ahead of Robert Lewandowski. This time, we could well see the Flea lift the BDO in recognition as much for his career as what he's done this season… a little like how John Wayne won an Oscar for True Grit.
2. Erling Haaland (13/2)
52 goals in 53 games, a Premier League, an FA Cup and a Champions League title isn't a bad shout for best player on Earth. Haaland would become the first Prem star since Cristiano Ronaldo in 2008 to lift the BDO.
There are good cases for and against Haaland getting the Ballon d'Or. On the one hand, he was the most devastating weapon in Pep Guardiola's side, elevated them to new levels and outscored just about everyone else. On the other, there were other players in that side – Kevin De Bruyne, John Stones, Ilkay Gundogan, Rodri – who have a case for having been just as good, just in a different way.
If it goes to a Manchester City player, it has to go to him… right?
3. Vinicius Jr (80/1)
The scorer of last season's Champions League-winning goal, Vinicius Jr is slowly but surely becoming the man for the big occasion whenever the biggest club in the world need him to be.
The Brazilian had a stellar season in the Champions League and established himself as the main man at the Bernabeu now, ahead of Karim Benzema. But surely Vini has to do a little more in that competition to surpass the achievement of Messi at the World Cup?
At 22, you can put Vinicius in a bracket with Haaland and Mbappe: all are having incredible seasons… but it's a little premature to label him as a favourite for this prize without a trophy at the end of the campaign.
3. Kevin De Bruyne (80/1)
Kevin De Bruyne was on the Ballon d'Or podium last autumn – and he probably thought he'd kissed his chance to do so again this year goodbye, with Belgium's weak World Cup performance.
Still, we can put KDB in the same boat as Erling Haaland, now. The strawberry blond playmaker came clutch at the end of City's phenomenal Treble, with iconic performances against Arsenal twice in the games that won the title before scoring at the Bernabeu to boot.
KDB coming off injured in Istanbul may harm his case but he's been in sparkling form of late. Surely he'll be in with a shout.
4. Kylian Mbappe (80/1)
Kylian Mbappe is yet to feature in the top three at the Ballon d'Or. Though he finished the World Cup as Lionel Messi's bridesmaid, he may yet get onto the awards' podium.
After all, many of the reasons that you'd vote for Messi are positives in King Kylian's corner, too. Inspired his team with goals a-plenty at the World Cup, dragging them through some rounds and breaking records as he went, before a stunning show in the final that no one will forget in the final – though both are let down by PSG's impotence in the Champions League.
It may be a little too soon for Mbappe but there's still a chance that he could sweep this prize this season. He's arguably the best player on Earth right now.
5. Rodri (80/1)
The metronomic presence in the Man City midfield, Rodri wrote his name into Citizen history when he netted the winner in the Champions League final. As is tradition for the Ballon d'Or, an underrated defensive midfielder will get a nomination for a big team victory.
It was Sergio Busquets in 2012, it's been Fabinho and Casemiro – incredibly, all three have only managed a single nomination each despite their consistency. Rodri is of the same cloth: he's been the composed figure over the back four, almost an ever-present and he steps up for the big moments.
A podium placing is not beyond the realms of possibility. It feels very similar to Jorginho in 2021 finishing third for his performances for Italy and Chelsea, doesn't it?
More Ballon d'Or stories
FFT editor James Andrew has argued the case for Erling Haaland and why he should win his first Ballon d'Or, while deputy editor Matthew Ketchell has laid out why Messi is more deserving.
Pep Guardiola has weighed in on the debate – meanwhile, these are the biggest robberies in Ballon d'Or history.
This is our live blog for the ceremony.
