Do we have the stomach to watch England in another penalty shootout, or are we at a place where we actually feel fairly confident about them now?
Actually, save that answer for tomorrow morning. But to try and settle our nerves a bit – or at least distract ourselves ahead of the Euro 2024 semi-final – we’ve had a look at how England and the Netherlands compare from the spot historically.
The data was provided to the BBC by Opta, and we’ve chopped it up a few different ways to see if we can learn anything from it.
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How England and the Netherlands have fared in penalty shootouts
If you think penalty data from the early 90s is at all relevant to what might happen on the pitch in Dortmund this evening…well, we still don’t have anything conclusive to tell you, weren’t afraid.
The Netherlands have almost exactly the same conversion rate in shootouts (67.6%) as England (68% exactly), with a comparable win/loss record.
Both sides have overwhelmingly lost their shootouts in the past, though England have recently turned a corner on that front. Having won just one of their first seven, up to and including Euro 2012, Gareth Southgate’s side have triumphed in two of their past three. Of course, they fell short where it mattered most, coming undone against Italy in the Euro 2020 final.
The Netherlands have meanwhile won just two of their eight shootouts, doing so in the Euro 2004 quarter-finals against Sweden and the 2014 World Cup quarter-finals against Costa Rica. The latter is the only time they have managed to score all of their spot kicks; England have done so twice, against Spain at Euro 96 and against Switzerland just a few nights ago.
But that's all in the past...what about the here and now?
Well, the good news for England fans is the current Three Lions squad have had a lot more recent experience of stepping up from 12 yards than the Netherlands (at international level, at least).
Kieran Trippier and Harry Kane both scored against Colombia at the 2018 World Cup; Kane and Bukayo Saka stepped up against Italy (Kane scored, Saka’s was saved); and Cole Palmer, Jude Bellingham, Saka, Ivan Toney and Trent Alexander Arnold all succeeded against the Swiss.
Among the Dutch contingent, only Virgil van Dijk and Wout Weghorst have taken shootout penalties for their country before, in their 2022 World Cup quarter-final defeat to Argentina. Van Dijk’s was saved, Weghorst scored. Two other players who featured in that shootout, Teun Koopmeiners and Luuk de Jong, pulled out of the Netherlands squad injured before Euro 2024 began.
England also have several more reliable players to call upon than the Netherlands. Across their careers for club and country, England have five players who have taken at least three penalties and maintained a 100% record: Palmer (12), Bellingham (5), Lewis Dunk (4), Alexander-Arnold (4), Anthony Gordon (3).
Conversely, Jordan Pickford has most cause to be wary of Steven Bergwijn, who has scored ten out of ten, and Denzel Dumfries, who has not faltered in his three goes to date.
As for the keepers...Transfermarkt credit Dutch number one Bart Verbruggen with just one penalty save in his career, with another 11 making it past him (8.3%).
Pickford's record? Outside shootouts, it's eight denied, 54 conceded (14.8%) - but for England in shootouts, it's five saved, 15 conceded (25%).
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