The quarter-finals at Euro 2024 are now set in stone after the round of 16 delivered eight winners still in with a chance of going all the way to lifting the trophy in Berlin last this month.
The round of 16 has changed our views a bit on one or two of the sides since the last edition of our Euro 2024 power rankings, which we have worked out through a combination of reference to the stats and the good old-fashioned eye test.
At this stage of the tournament, the feeling of momentum is also increasingly important to us - and some have gathered steam more than most.
Euro 2024: Previous Winners
8. England (Ranking last time: 6)
We checked and double-checked to make sure we weren’t just being miserable pessimists here, but just couldn’t find a way around it.
England are the worst attacking side left in the competition by quite some distance with just 0.86 expected goals per 90 minutes, and they’re the only side left in the competition who are yet to look truly convincing in at least one of their games. Their defensive record is, thankfully, still very solid, but not really any more so than France, Portugal, Germany or Spain.
It’s possible that what Gareth Southgate saw late on against Slovakia might tempt him into changing his approach to get more out of them – but as it stands, we can’t judge them on something we’ve only seen for 15 minutes per game at most.
7. Portugal (3)
You lucky lot. Have we seen anything from Portugal this tournament beyond “just put lots of players in the box and hope for the best?”. Not really. If Slovenia hadn’t been so hopeless from the penalty spot, they could very well have been out already.
After winning their first two games but failing to score in their past two – both games they would have expected to win with relative ease – Portugal feel like they are running out of momentum. For maybe the first time for his country, Cristiano Ronaldo looks like a spent resource, yet their gameplan continues to revolve around him.
Still…there’s a lot of other good players in that squad, so we’ve a sneaking suspicion they could be genuine contenders in spite of those deficiencies.
6. France (4)
Last time out we gave France a lot of the benefit of the doubt based on their relatively impressive expected goal difference, which gave the impression that we might have had a sleeping giant on our hands in the group stage.
Their continued laboured efforts against an even more unimpressive Belgium didn’t really support that feeling, however, and the quality gap between the best players in their starting line-up and the weakest feels like a gulf at times.
With the assignments only getting tougher from here, France are in the same position as the rest of our bottom three: if they’re going to start gathering momentum, they really have to start now.
5. Netherlands (9)
That dominant victory over Romania on Tuesday evening has done a lot of favours to our view of a side that last time we felt were running more on pure vibes than on any kind of cohesive strategy.
We’re not entirely convinced about the Netherlands, who still have a bit of a lightweight feel about them - as reflected in their relatively poor defensive record compared with their fellow quarter-finalists. Their placement here is more reflective of our dim view of the sides we have ranked below the Dutch than anything else.
But there is something there if they can hit their stride properly: unlike most of the teams below them in these rankings, it feels like a matter of minor tweaks being required, rather than major surgery.
4. Turkey (11)
The most fun team left in the tournament? Absolutely. But it’s more than that: Turkey actually been really really good for most of the tournament.
That 3-0 defeat to Portugal does raise a red flag about their capacity to cope with some of the better sides in the competition, and is really the only reason we haven’t placed Turkey any higher.
They will get a chance to dispel that one lingering doubt in the quarter-finals, though – and if they pull it off, they can rightly feel they have a legitimate chance of going all the way….especially if Mert Gunok has any more saves like that left in him.
3. Switzerland (7)
They’ve already drawn with Germany and beaten Italy: will England be the next big name to fall short against the Swiss?
It’s not just the scorelines in those games, but the fact that Switzerland looked good value for it: they were very unfortunate to have their stubborn resistance broken in injury time against Germany, and limited Italy to just a single shot on target.
That draw against Scotland now looks like the aberration, rather than a sign of potential limitations, and Switzerland can genuinely feel they have a chance against England after seeing them struggle to break down solid defensive units.
2. Germany (2)
Not quite as close to the top spot as we had them last week, but we still feel like the hosts are some distance ahead of the rest of the field.
Their opening game against Scotland has padded their stats a bit, but Germany have been strong at both ends of the field and – handball controversy or no handball controversy – deserved their victory over Denmark in the last 16.
And of course, they have home field advantage to call on as well…but we’ll soon found out just how significant that is…
1. Spain (1)
By practically any measure, still the best team out there. They’re the only ones with a 100% record, and they got through their knockout game comfortably despite going behind to their first goal conceded this summer.
It feels like a bit of an shame for the tournament as a whole that the undisputed best two side of the tournament so far are now going to face each other as early in the quarter-finals, but also: that could be a hell of a game.
The real quiz starts here.
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