In mid-March, things looked good for Newcastle. They were unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games, with a January resurgence lifting them out of the relegation zone doldrums and towards a comfortable mid-table finish.
But just three games on, and suddenly things look a lot different.
A 1-0 defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on March 13 was far from a crisis for the Magpies, but losing to a hapless 10-man Everton in the ninth-minute of stoppage time may have hit the team's confidence. Sunday's 5-1 drubbing at Tottenham can't have helped on that front.
With eight games to go, Eddie Howe's side might feel that the nine-point gap between themselves and 18th-placed Watford is enough. Three of those remaining eight games, though, are against teams who expect to be in the Champions League next season (Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal), another is against a team in the hunt for a European spot (Wolves) and two are against relegation candidates (Norwich and Burnley).
If the Magpies' bad form extends further into April, they still could find themselves dragged down into the relegation battle. Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal all come in the final four games of the season, while the final day itself is a trip to Burnley. This season, Turf Moor is far from the fortress Sean Dyche has made it in recent years, but would still not be a welcome trip for a potential relegation decider.
Newcastle currently sit on 31 points – one point more than we think relegation-embattled Everton could finish on, and a total lower than any team has survived on in Premier League history.
The key then, is surely to get points on the board before Liverpool's journey to the north-east on April 30. With three home games before then (Wolves, Leicester and Crystal Palace), plus that away game at Norwich before then, the world's richest club surely have it in them to secure their Premier League position this month.
Right?
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