Premier League preview: What (definitely) will and won't happen this weekend

Southampton fans

Liverpool vs Stoke (Saturday, 12.30pm)

The big talking point: Liverpool still have a top-four place to secure, but the story is really Stoke: defeat here won't relegate them, but it might as well. They have to get something.

What will happen: We'll see the limitations of this Stoke team. They should have beaten West Ham. They should have beaten Burnley. They should have at least drawn with Spurs. They did none of those things, though, suffering from their inability to convert pressure into goals. It's hardly an original observation, but the lack of a reliable goalscorer has proven crippling.

What won't happen: Some good news for Paul Lambert, though: Liverpool will rotate their side and will definitely be without Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Sadio Mané, both of whom were midweek casualties. Oxlade-Chamberlain is now gone for the season - and the World Cup - but Mané should be fit for the trip to Rome and beyond.

Burnley vs Brighton (Saturday, 3pm)

The big talking point: A win for Brighton, coupled with a defeat for Southampton, would secure survival for Chris Hughton's team – a deserved reward for having conceded fewer goals than every other side in the bottom half of the table.

What will happen: The Manchester United/Chelsea FA Cup final means that seventh place in the league will now definitely carry Europa League qualification. The other good news for Sean Dyche and Burnley is that a single point will guarantee them that place.

What won't happen: An away win looks a remote possibility. Brighton haven't actually won away from home since November (1-0, Swansea) and they've only scored four goals away from the Amex since the turn of the year.

Crystal Palace vs Leicester (Saturday, 3pm)

The big talking point: This is the game Palace have been waiting for. Win here and they won't quite be safe, but it would require a strange sequence of events for them not to be. Three more points and Roy Hodgson will likely have completed an admirable comeback, despite probably the worst injury list in the division.

What will happen: And they'll get that win. Palace are actually in good form, having won two of their last four games and losing just once to Liverpool. Leicester? The energy drained from their season some time ago and it wouldn't be a great shock to see them roll over here. One team has a desperate need, the other none at all: that kind of disparity often tells in the score.

What won't happen: Palace continue to labour under their injury list - Jeff Schlupp is unavailable again against his former club - while Kasper Schmeichel is out for Leicester; as is Shinji Okazaki.

Huddersfield vs Everton (Saturday, 3pm)

The big talking point: Christ, won't this be negative. Huddersfield, never knowingly over-ambitious, against Sam Allardyce's Everton. What a spectacle.

What will happen: Goalless draw. Huddersfield's need isn't desperate – their win over Watford lifted them clear of immediate danger – and David Wagner isn't prone to reckless, over-committing football. Everton's season has never even really begun. They were only marginally less dreadful than Newcastle on Monday night, and they'll likely be content to sit behind the ball and take a point.

What won't happen: Morgan Schneiderlin suffered a dead leg in that 1-0 win at Goodison Park and seems set to miss out here.

Newcastle vs West Brom (Saturday, 3pm)

The big talking point: D-Day for West Brom: this is when the music stops. Depending on how other results go, even a win might not be enough to delay the inevitable.

What will happen: It should become 12 unbeaten games from 13 for Newcastle. West Brom produced a worthy comeback against Liverpool – at least their players want to play for Darren Moore – but the futility of their task should catch up with them. St James' Park will be vibrant, Newcastle will chase the point they need for safety, and West Brom will almost certainly wilt.

What won't happen: Christian Atsu is out, but Rafael Benitez has no fresh injury concerns. West Brom, too, will name the same squad which salvaged that point last weekend.

Southampton vs Bournemouth (Saturday, 3pm)

The big talking point: The derby that's not a derby. How times change: Bournemouth can't quite relegate Southampton by winning at St. Mary's, but they could do everything but. Ouch.

What will happen: Jack Stephens has served his suspension and will return to the side. Stephens isn't the most elegant defender, nor is he the neatest on the ball, but he's arguably been Southampton's finest. He's back at a critical time and with no margin for error.

What won't happen: However, Steven Davis won't feature - nor will he for the rest of the season. Sofiane Boufal certainly won't be included either: his fall-out with Mark Hughes has likely ended his career at the club.

Swansea vs Chelsea (Saturday, 5.30pm)

The big talking point: Safety. Three of Swansea's final four games are at home and their only away fixture looks winnable too (Bournemouth). Still, they're winless now for almost two months and the longer that remains the case, the more pressurised this situation will become.

What will happen: Still, this is a tough challenge. Chelsea were assumed to be done a few weeks ago and, truthfully, their top-four chances still look remote, but they are playing far better. Utterly dominant against Southampton at Wembley and impressive in their comeback against the same side a week before, this should be another three points.

What won't happen: Marcos Alonso is still suspended and he'll serve the final game of his ban. Federico Fernandez and Luciano Narsingh are doubts for Swansea, while Tammy Abraham is ineligible to face his parent club.

West Ham vs Manchester City (Sunday, 2.15pm)

The big talking point: West Ham still aren't quite safe. A Southampton or Stoke win at the weekend, married to defeat here, and their top-flight status will start to look very precarious again.

What will happen: But a defeat is coming. The consensus seems to be that David Moyes has improved this side, but it's worth remembering just how poor they were before he arrived. Maybe they're sturdier, but better in any meaningful way? Nope: they'll get carved up here, just as they were by Manchester City last year at the London Stadium.

What won't happen: Moyes will also have to suffer a further rethink in defence: Joe Hart is obviously ineligible - which, given recent events, might be a positive - and Winston Reid, Pedro Obiang and James Collins are all still out. Sergio Aguero and John Stones will both be missing for City.

Manchester United vs Arsenal (Sunday, 4.30pm)

The big talking point: St Totteringham's Day. Or the lack of. Either Arsenal win here or Spurs will be guaranteed to finish above them for a second straight year.

What will happen: Thursday night was terrible for Arsenal. The performance, obviously, but also the psychological effect. They've been prioritising the Europa League for months and for that game against Atletico to be the end result will be incredibly disheartening. Ordinarily, a trip to Old Trafford would be enough to jolt the senses, but this team seems to have already flatlined.

What won't happen: Don't expect the Arsenal supporters who make the trip to be too gracious during their first re-encounter with Alexis Sanchez. It's perfectly reasonable to understand why the Chilean felt he needed to leave, but to also recognise that his behaviour in those final months was borderline unprofessional at times.

Tottenham vs Watford (Monday, 8pm)

The big talking point: In theory, this is the perfect fixture for Spurs. Without a win in three, including the FA Cup semi-final, three points here should settle the nerves ahead of closing out Champions League qualification.

What will happen: Watford. Watford, Watford, Watford. Given what this season could have been - and what it promised to be for much of late 2017 - the last four months have been truly dreadful. Injuries account for some of that, the change of manager too, but the atmosphere at Vicarage Road still isn't right. Whatever it is that causes this problem, this early sign-off, the club have to fix it.

What won't happen: It's difficult to see Spurs having a problem here. Sceptics will be waiting for a post-FA Cup sulk, but that seems unlikely: the performance against Manchester United was disappointing, so too the draw with Brighton, but there's no obvious sign of an issue - or at least, not one which should cause any issue over the course of four very winnable games (Watford, West Brom, Leicester and Newcastle).

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Seb Stafford-Bloor is a football writer at Tifo Football and member of the Football Writers' Association. He was formerly a regularly columnist for the FourFourTwo website, covering all aspects of the game, including tactical analysis, reaction pieces, longer-term trends and critiquing the increasingly shady business of football's financial side and authorities' decision-making.