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Why referees matter
Do you pay attention when a referee is assigned to your club's upcoming game? If not, you should from now on - thanks to data from Team vs Ref, we can reveal that Premier League teams stand a 75% better chance of winning a match when their 'lucky' referee is in charge.
Analysing more than five seasons of data stretching back to 2012/13, this slideshow identifies which whistle-blower brings most success to each top-flight outfit (barring Huddersfield and Brighton due to lack of Premier League appearances) by calculating the club's win rate with their favoured referee.
18. Newcastle: Martin Atkinson
Win rate: 0.43 (out of 1)
Newcastle's 'luckiest' official is Atkinson, but their referee win rate of 0.43 is lower than the other Premier League teams covered here.
Still, seven successes in 16 Atkinson-led matches isn't to be sniffed at, particularly as the Magpies' usual win rate is just 0.3.
17. Burnley: Martin Atkinson
Win rate: 0.44
Atkinson has been kind to Burnley down the years, with the Clarets' chances of winning increasing by 68% when the Bradford-born official is assigned to their matches. A referee win rate of 0.44 might not sound particularly high, but it's significant when you consider that Burnley's normal rate since 2012/13 is just 0.29.
16. Crystal Palace: Lee Mason
Win rate: 0.5
Mason has been the man in the middle for eight of Palace's Premier League matches since 2012/13, with the Eagles getting the better of their opponents on four occasions. That represents a 64% increased chance of winning for the south Londoners, whose normal win rate across all referees is 0.3.
15. West Brom: Martin Atkinson
Win rate: 0.56
West Brom replaced Tony Pulis with Alan Pardew in November, but perhaps they wouldn't have had to sack the Welshman if Atkinson had been in charge of their matches more often.
The Yorkshireman certainly seems like a lucky charm, with the Baggies' chances of winning rising by a mammoth 113% under him.
13. Watford: Andre Marriner
Win rate: 0.6
Followers of Watford should keep an eye out for Marriner's assignments from now on; if he's appointed to referee a Hornets game, there's a good chance of victory.
Since the start of 2012/13, the Hertfordshire club have a general win rate of 0.32, but that almost doubles to 0.6 when Marriner's the man in the middle.
12. West Ham: Bobby Madley
Win rate: 0.63
There's no referee on the circuit under whom West Ham have more chances of winning, with the club's win rate rising from 0.33 to 0.63 when Madley is placed in charge.
The Hammers' 'lucky' record under the 32-year-old would have been even better had they held on to a two-goal lead against Crystal Palace back in October.
9. Liverpool: Mike Jones
Win rate: 0.71
Jones will be celebrating 10 years as a Premier League referee in 2018, and Liverpool will be hoping he's involved in the top flight for a lot longer yet.
That's because the Reds tend to fare well under the Yorkshireman: in the last five and a bit seasons, they've won five of seven games managed by Jones, lifting their win rate from 0.49 to 0.71.
7. Leicester: Anthony Taylor
Win rate: 0.73
One of Taylor's most recent assignments was Leicester vs Tottenham, which ended in a 2-1 home victory for the Foxes. That shouldn't really have come as a surprise: after all, the East Midlanders have a 102% increased chance of winning under Taylor, who's overseen 11 Leicester games in the period covered.
6. Swansea: Craig Pawson
Win rate: 0.75
As Paul Clement ponders solutions to Swansea's poor form, he'll be hoping Pawson is selected to boss one of his team's games soon. The Swans' chances of winning rise by a mammoth 127% under the 38-year-old, who's presided over six victories for the Welsh club in his eight matches in charge.
2. Manchester City: Neil Swarbrick
Win rate: 0.89
Pep Guardiola's side don't exactly need any help this season, but they'll still be pleased whenever Swarbrick is appointed as the match official for their games. City have triumphed in eight of the nine encounters the Lancastrian has worked on in the last five years, boosting their win rate to 0.89 when Swarbrick is the man calling the shots.
1. Chelsea: Roger East
Win rate: 1
The record perhaps isn't quite as impressive as it seems at first sight, though. East has only refereed five Chelsea games in the period covered, which is substantially fewer than most of the other examples cited here. But still, Conte can be content when he sees the gleaming-pated East in charge.
