Euro 2024 supercomputer issues tournament prediction as England’s chances of glory calculated

The Henri Delaunay Cup England at Euro 2024 is a possibility to win
The Henri Delaunay Cup (Image credit: Getty Images)

England’s Euro 2024 preparations have been stepped up on Tuesday with the announcement of Gareth Southgate’s provisional squad for the tournament. 

The Three Lions boss now has another two-and-a-half weeks and two friendlies against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iceland before he has to submit his final 26-man squad for this summer’s tournament.

England will travel to Germany as one of the tournament’s favourites next month as Southgate looks to end 58 years of hurt, but what does the supercomputer make of the Three Lions chances?

Gareth Southgate stood next to the European Championship trophy as England manager Euro 2024

Gareth Southgate stood next to the European Championship trophy (Image credit: Getty Images)

Oddspedia’s supercomputer has run through 1,000 simulations to determine which side has the best chance of lifting the Euro 2024 trophy in Berlin on July 14. 

And if this number crunching is to be believed, this summer’s tournament will be something of a two-horse race, as France and England look to be ahead of the chasing pack. 

In their 1,000 simulations, France win the tournament 278 times, ahead of England who have 238 victories. 

That means Didier Deschamps’ side have a 27.8 per cent chance of winning in Germany, ahead of the Three Lions on 23.8 per cent.

France Euro 2024 squad Players of Team France, Ibrahima Konate #13, William Saliba #17, Randal Kolo Muani #12, Mike Maignan #16, Aurelien Tchouameni #8, Olivier Giroud #9, Youssouf Fofana #19, Theo Hernandez #22, Jonathan Clauss #3, Eduardo Camavinga #6 and captain, Kylian Mbappe #10 pose before the international friendly match between France and Chile at Stade Velodrome on March 26, 2024 in Marseille, France. (Photo by Xavier Laine/Getty Images)

France are also tipped for a strong tournament (Image credit: Getty Images)

Germany’s chances are calculated at seven per cent, ahead of Italy (5.5 per cent), Spain (5.3 per cent), the Netherlands (3.9 per cent) and Portugal (3.4 per cent). 

Scotland are given just a 1.2 per cent chance of an unlikely victory.

England get their tilt underway on Sunday, June 16 when they take on Serbia before facing Denmark on June 20 and Slovenia on June 25. 

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Joe Mewis

For more than a decade Joe Mewis has worked in football journalism as a reporter and editor, with stints at Mirror Football and LeedsLive among others. He is the author of four football history books that include times on Leeds United and the England national team.