Gameweek 13 of the Premier League season saw a return to form for Leicester, but are the Foxes too inconsistent for FPL managers to rely on?
Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.
By looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.
According to Threat, Leicester’s performances have ranged from the sublime to the ridiculous, while a couple of other teams might feel hard done by this weekend based on their performances.
Fluctuating Foxes
Four goals and three points against Watford will have encouraged many FPL bosses to consider a couple of Leicester players, but the data suggests reliability may not be the team’s strong suit.
The Foxes ran out 4-2 winners at the weekend but only beat Watford by 271 to 205 in the Threat stakes, creating and allowing plenty of chances respectively.
This frenzied performance is indicative of Leicester’s season – Brendan Rodgers’ side have registered more than 300 Threat on two occasions, but have managed to score less than 100 Threat in five different games.
That record is matched only by bottom side Newcastle, while strugglers Norwich – who had yet to win a game until very recently – have only scored less than 100 Threat four times.
Leicester, who only narrowly missed out on automatic Champions League qualification last season, are also one of just three teams yet to concede less than 100 Threat in a game (along with Watford and Burnley).
Currently 10th, Leicester have won five, lost five and drawn three in a rather appropriate display of their hit-and-miss season, but if you would like to take a punt on one of their players, a couple spring to mind.
James Maddison will hope his goal and two assists against the Hornets have kickstarted his season, a 16-point return making its way to his 4.4 per cent ownership.
Meanwhile Jamie Vardy ended a run of four games without a goal with a brace, making him the top-scoring striker in terms of FPL points.
The Foxes face Southampton, Aston Villa and Newcastle next – will they find some consistency during a favourable fixture list?
Leaders luckless
While Leicester just about deserved their victory, league leaders Chelsea looked like comfortable winners against Manchester United despite drawing 1-1.
The Blues outscored the visitors by 288 to 37 in the Threat department, while their recent performances suggest they are hitting their stride regardless of dropped points.
In their last five league games Chelsea’s lowest Threat score was 194, while their worst defensive performance in that same period saw them concede just 77 Threat.
Anyone with Reece James or Antonio Rudiger in their side then need not worry too much about the middling result against Manchester United.
The Blues will not face a traditional top six side until January now either, while one of Thomas Tuchel’s strikers made an impression at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.
Timo Werner has yet to make his mark in the Premier League, but registered a Threat score of 82 against Manchester United, while he has the highest proportion of Chelsea’s Threat scored so far this season at 10.7 per cent.
At 1.4 per cent ownership, can Werner play Romelu Lukaku out of first team contention and make the striker slot his own?
