Despite four consecutive defeats, Brentford’s performances have been strangely encouraging according to the FPL’s Threat metric.
Threat is a metric introduced by the FPL to measure the quality of the chances a player enjoys in front of goal, with a score of around 100 usually accounting for a goal’s worth of chances.
By looking at how much Threat a team scored and allowed during a game, one can better understand whether their result aligned with the strength of their performance.
The graphic below plots each team’s Threat scored and Threat conceded total – the further a team is towards the bottom right, the better their performance.
Clearly three teams were unfortunate not to win in gameweek 11: Liverpool, Chelsea and Brentford.
The Reds were beaten 3-2 by West Ham, ending their unbeaten start to the season, but Jurgen Klopp’s side outscored the Hammers by 245 to 115 in the Threat stakes, with Sadio Mane scoring 60.
Meanwhile, Chelsea drew 1-1 against Burnley despite beating the visitors by 341 to 77 according to Threat.
However, the biggest Threat score of the week went to the Bees, who managed to lose 2-1 despite beating Norwich in terms of Threat by 353 to 94.
Such a margin is a clear indicator that one team enjoyed far better chances than their opponent and probably should have claimed all three points.
The problem for FPL managers is that a number of Brentford players have become semi-popular, but their results are not matching up with their encouraging performances.
The Bees have lost their last four league games, despite only conceding more Threat than they scored on one of those occasions (and even then they were only outscored by 19).
The question then remains, should FPL managers show patience with a view to the newly promoted side’s form potentially recovering?
Their next five games are against Newcastle, Everton, Tottenham, Leeds and Watford, not the most intimidating fixture list, with games against three teams who have recently changed manager.
For those who believe the Bees are due a run of results, the following players may be worth considering.
Ivan Toney is Brentford’s most popular player (22.4 per cent ownership) – at £6.7m he appeared a strong third-choice striker option after a couple of goals, but has failed to score or assist in his last five games.
Toney ranks eighth for Threat and sixth for Creativity among forwards, but will see his ownership drop sharply if he continues to fail to find the net.
Sergi Canos scored the highest percentage of his team’s Threat against Norwich with a score of 75 – the £5.5m midfielder has however only netted once and assisted once this season.
Canos’s midfield colleague Bryan Mbeumo costs just £0.1m more meanwhile, and has managed two goals so far and a 4.6 per cent ownership backing.
In defence, two of the team’s best scorers are Pontus Jansson and Ethan Pinnock – both men have 43 points and come in at £4.7m.
And last but not least, goalkeeper Alvaro Fernandez could be filling in for the injured David Raya, who the FPL believe will be out until March with a knee injury, for some time.
Fernandez comes in at £4.5m, but has so far conceded five goals in just two games.
