The ‘magic 40-point mark’ used to be a staple of the Premier League relegation battle lexicon.
For years, the conventional wisdom was that once your side hit 40 points, your work was done there was no prospect of dropping out of the Premier League.
But as the 2023/24 season reaches the home straight, the notion that 40 points are needed for survival is something of a myth, as laid out by the recent points totals for teams finishing in the 18th and final relegation spot.
With just three games left this season, we could be set for a new low when it comes for the number of points needed for survival. Here’s a closer look.
What are the lowest points totals for teams finishing 18th?
Here are the lowest totals for teams finishing 18th since the Premier League has had 20 clubs, which underlines the fact that needing 40 points to survive is something of a myth.
28 points - Fulham (2020/21)
30 points - Burnley (2009/10)
33 points - Wimbledon (1999/2000), Leicester City (2003/04), Crystal Palace (2004/05), Norwich City (2013/14), Swansea City (2017/18)
34 points - Manchester City (2000/01), Birmingham City (2005/06), Newcastle United (2008/09), Hull City (2016/17), Cardiff City (2018/19), Bournemouth (2019/20)
What about this season?
With three games remaining and Sheffield United’s relegation confirmed it looks like a three-way battle for 17th place. Burnley are 19th on 24 points, Luton Town are 18th on 25, while Nottingham Forest sit outside the drop zone in 17th, on 26 points.
Therefore, the maximum of points that a team finishing 18th this year can attain would be Luton on 34 points - and that would be one of the lowest totals for the final relegated team in the competition’s history.
Should Luton win their remaining three to hit 34 points and still go down, they would join six other sides to get relegated in 18th place on 34 points.
The Hatters still need to get some more points on the board if they are to avoid the ignominy of the lowest-ever 18th-placed Premier League points tally.
That currently belongs to Fulham after they claimed just 28 points in their 2020/21 campaign. Next is Burnley on 30 points in 2009/10, while five other sides have finished 18th on 33 points.
Therefore, the argument that this season’s bottom three are - points-wise at least - the worst in the competition’s history and that the bar for survival is the lowest it has ever been is still very much in play with three games remaining.
This argument is underlined by the fact Everton have been able to ensure their safety with three games remaining, despite seeing eight points deducted, while Nottingham Forest are currently out of the drop zone following their four-point deduction.
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