Premier League’s chances of receiving fifth Champions League spot reduced by almost 30 per cent – after defeats for Liverpool and West Ham United

West Ham fall to defeat at Bayer Leverkusen
(Image credit: Getty Images)

The Premier League’s chances of receiving a fifth Champions League spot next season have been reduced by almost 30 per cent, after Liverpool and West Ham United fell to defeat in their Europa League quarter-final first legs.

Liverpool surprisingly lost 3-0 at home to Atalanta, with West Ham suffering a 2-0 reverse at Bayer Leverkusen, and both results could yet prove critical in England’s bid to secure five places in the Champions League group stage next term.

The Champions League moves to a new format for the 2024/25 season, with 36 teams in the group stage rather than 32, and two of those extra places will go to the countries who have the best average performance across all three European competitions this season.

Prior to Thursday’s Europa League and Conference League quarter-final first legs, England was given an 84.4 per cent of taking one of those extra spots, according to computer simulations, because of results in Europe this term – Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham and Aston Villa have all reached the quarter-finals of their respective competitions.

Group stage exits for Manchester United and Newcastle United meant that they still trailed the rankings to Italy, who were given a 98.2 per cent chance of taking one of the extra Champions League spots. Germany were third, with just a 17 per cent chance, ahead of France (0.4 per cent).

Atalanta won at Liverpool

(Image credit: Getty Images)

Bayer Leverkusen’s win over West Ham was good for Germany and bad for England – the Premier League is now at major risk of losing both its Europa League teams at the quarter-final stage, while Manchester City, Arsenal and Aston Villa still have work to do in their continental second-legs, too.

England is now given a 57.8 per cent chance of receiving a fifth Champions League spot, with Germany up to 41.8 per cent and Italy well clear on 99.8 per cent.

The Champions League quarter-final second leg between Bayern Munich and Arsenal now looks particularly important, as does Manchester City’s tie with Real Madrid and Aston Villa’s second leg with Lille in the Conference League.

Aston Villa will be playing not only to reach the Conference League semis, furthering their chance of European glory this season, but also to help their own chances of reaching the Champions League next term.

They currently sit fifth in the Premier League, and are on course to be the team who would benefit if England received an extra Champions League spot next term.

More Champions League stories

Best players never to win the Champions League

'Embrace the madness': FourFourTwo goes behind the scenes at TNT Sports' Champions League Goals Show

What is the Champions League anthem and what are the words?

Chris Flanagan
Senior Staff Writer

Chris joined FourFourTwo in 2015 and has reported from 20 countries, in places as varied as Jerusalem and the Arctic Circle. He's interviewed Pele, Zlatan and Santa Claus (it's a long story), as well as covering the World Cup, Euro 2020 and the Clasico. He previously spent 10 years as a newspaper journalist, and completed the 92 in 2017.

Read more
A general view of the UEFA Champions League trophy at the UEFA Champions League Draw for the 2008/2009 season at the Grimaldi Center on August 28, 2008 in Monte Carlo, Monaco.
REVEALED: How many more wins English teams need in Europe to clinch fifth Champions League spot
The UEFA Champions League trophy on display at Wembley ahead of the 2024 final
How over half the Premier League could end up playing in Europe next season
Alexander Isak celebrates after scoring Newcastle United's second goal against Liverpool in the League Cup final in March 2025.
Over HALF the Premier League could qualify for Europe next season, with one of Tottenham or Manchester United missing out
Mohamed Salah is still yet to reveal whether he will stay with Liverpool beyond this season
Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa's routes to the Champions League final
Harvey Elliott celebrates with his arms outstretched after scoring the winning goal for Liverpool against PSG in the Champions League last 16 first leg match at the Parc des Princes in Paris on 5 March, 2025
Liverpool with work to do, Arsenal effectively there and Aston Villa looking good as three Premier League sides in Champions League last 16 action
Liverpool boss Arne Slot could still win the Premier League in his first season in England
‘Five more wins should give Liverpool the title – they’re facing questions after their two cup defeats, but the Premier League was always the be all and end’ Former Anfield star explains how many points the Reds need to secure the title
Latest in Stories
Fulham manager Marco Silva looks on from the dugout ahead of the FA Cup fourth round tie against Wigan Athletic at the Brick Community Stadium in Wigan, England on 8 February, 2025
'I think Marco Silva is the best manager in London - he managed to really maintain the desire to play attractive football, which was really hard over the years': Former Fulham talisman showers praise on 'impressive' Marco Silva
Manchester United head coach Ruben Amorim looks on following his side's defeat against AFC Bournemouth
Report reveals 10 Manchester United players leaving this summer
Tottenham Hotspur back row (L-R) Dele Alli, Mousa Dembele, Eric Dier, Davinson Sanchez, Hugo Lloris, Jan Vertonghen; front row (L-R) Son Heung-min, Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, Kieran Trippier, Ben Davies during the Champions League match against Juventus at the Wembley Stadium on March 7, 2018 in London United Kingdom
Tottenham cult hero calls retirement - to avoid 'painkiller dependency'
Thomas Tuchel will take charge of England for the very first time this evening
'He pushed us. It was tough love, but that's Thomas' Former player reveals that the new England manager will be HARD on his players
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola holds aloft the Premier League trophy at the Etihad in May 2023.
Quiz! Can you name every Premier League champion... in just 90 seconds?
LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 19: manager Ange Postecoglou of Tottenham Hotspur FC and Micky van de Venand Cristian Romero during the Premier League match between Tottenham Hotspur FC and West Ham United FC at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on October 19, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images)
Tottenham star Cristian Romero 'willing to do everything' to LEAVE: report
Latest in News
Fulham manager Marco Silva looks on from the dugout ahead of the FA Cup fourth round tie against Wigan Athletic at the Brick Community Stadium in Wigan, England on 8 February, 2025
'I think Marco Silva is the best manager in London - he managed to really maintain the desire to play attractive football, which was really hard over the years': Former Fulham talisman showers praise on 'impressive' Marco Silva
Manchester United head coach Ruben Amorim looks on following his side's defeat against AFC Bournemouth
Report reveals 10 Manchester United players leaving this summer
James Maddison of Tottenham Hotspur scores their 2nd goal during the Premier League match between Manchester City FC and Tottenham Hotspur FC at Etihad Stadium on November 23, 2024 in Manchester, England.
Tottenham and Manchester City could smash transfer record for British wonderkid: report
Tottenham Hotspur back row (L-R) Dele Alli, Mousa Dembele, Eric Dier, Davinson Sanchez, Hugo Lloris, Jan Vertonghen; front row (L-R) Son Heung-min, Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, Kieran Trippier, Ben Davies during the Champions League match against Juventus at the Wembley Stadium on March 7, 2018 in London United Kingdom
Tottenham cult hero calls retirement - to avoid 'painkiller dependency'
Thomas Tuchel will take charge of England for the very first time this evening
'He pushed us. It was tough love, but that's Thomas' Former player reveals that the new England manager will be HARD on his players
Arsenal squad for 2024/25 LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 11: William Saliba of Arsenal celebrates scoring his teams first goal with teammates during the Pre-Season Friendly match between Arsenal FC and Olympique Lyonnais at Emirates Stadium on August 11, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Arsenal warned, as Real Madrid are coming for their star next: report