The statistic that shows why Arsenal won’t win the league

Arsenal players Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka celebrate
(Image credit: Getty Images)

Arsenal’s start to the Premier League season has not been plain sailing with Mikel Arteta’s side drawing at home to Brighton and losing away to Bournemouth in their first eight games.

Three red cards in these opening games suggest a disciple problem that has undoubtedly contributed to a bumpy start that leaves them four points off the top of the table already.

Injuries have also hampered Arsenal with Martin Odegaard missing their last five league matches, while Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber, Ben White, Mikel Merino, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Takehiro Tomiyasu have all missed matches due to injuries.

Red card stat that suggests Arsenal won't win the league

Arsenal defender William Saliba

William Saliba walking off the pitch (Image credit: Getty Images)

Since Pep Guardiola took over at Manchester City in 2016 no team has won the Premier League when receiving more than two red cards across the season.

Arsenal have received three in their first eight games alone meaning they will have to buck this trend if they want to stop Manchester City from retaining their Premier League crown.

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 31: Declan Rice of Arsenal interacts with match referee Chris Kavanagh after being shown a second yellow card during the Premier League match between Arsenal FC and Brighton & Hove Albion FC at Emirates Stadium on August 31, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Declan Rice red card incident (Image credit: Getty Images)

The two teams that have managed to stop Manchester City from winning the league since Guardiola’s move were Chelsea in 2016-17 and Liverpool in 2019-20 who received zero and one red card respectively.

Crucially over the last four seasons Manchester City have only dropped points in two games where they received a red card - one of which was a Joao Cancelo sending-off in the second to last game of the 2020-21 season when City had already sealed the title.

In contrast, Arsenal’s dropped points this season have all come in games when they received red cards. They were also leading against Brighton and Manchester City before red cards led to two draws.

What will give Arsenal some hope is that they are yet to miss those players who have been sent off, winning against Tottenham and Leicester despite suspensions to Declan Rice and Leandro Trossard respectively.

However, FourFourTwo would suggest this resolve will be tested this weekend as Arsenal host league leaders Liverpool and will be forced to play without William Saliba following his sending-off against Bournemouth.

With injury issues affecting Arsenal more than they have in previous seasons, Mikel Arteta will surely look to enforce a disciplinary tightrope on his Arsenal side before further red cards hamper them in a league environment where any dropped points can be punished.

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Ben Marsden

Ben is currently studying for his NCTJ qualification with News Associates after graduating from Durham University. He is an avid Liverpool fan, lover of tactics and long-time enthusiast of FourFourTwo’s quizzes. His favourite memories of being a journalist so far include his interview with musician Banners that featured in the Liverpool FC Programme, as well as Jurgen Klopp signing his article for his student newspaper on Klopp’s brilliant tenure at Anfield. When he does play football he plays as a bizarre striker/right-wing/right-back hybrid.

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