Fantasy Premier League bosses may well be aware of the game’s Creativity and Threat metrics, but how many understand how to use it to their advantage?
The Premier League website says Creativity “assesses player performance in terms of producing goalscoring opportunities for others” while Threat produces “a value that examines a player’s threat on goal.”
To clarify, Creativity scores hint at how many assists a player could expect to have registered based on their performance, while Threat scores anticipate the likelihood of goals.
So how should you interpret the numbers?
While the official site does not say how much Threat is equivalent to a goal, by studying a large sample it is possible to see the ratio of Threat to goals.
If you add up all the Threat and goals earned by the top 50 active players since the Threat metric was introduced, you get 1,914 goals from 194,006 Threat, which is 101.4 Threat per goal.
That is close enough to 100 that it is reasonably safe to assume that, in the FPL model, 100 Threat is equal to a goal’s worth of chances – in the long run, a player could be expected to score one goal for every 100 Threat they are awarded.
The same is true for Creativity, where the total Creativity for the top 50 active players since the metric was introduced is 160,640 for 1,646 assists. Once again that works out to just about 100 Creativity for every assist.
With those numbers in mind, it is possible to see which players are underachieving when it comes to converting Threat and Creativity into goals and assists, and could therefore be on the cusp of a fine patch of form.
Last season’s leading Threat underachiever (minimum 500 Threat scored) for example is Wolves’ Adama Traore.
Traore managed only two goals last term, but could reasonably have been expected to notch closer to six or seven, having accrued 645 Threat all season.
Meanwhile Liverpool defender Trent Alexander-Arnold was the leading defender for Threat scored in 2020/21 with 529.
Despite converting just two of his chances all season, the full-back could have notched five according to his performance level.
When it comes to Creativity underperformance, Wolves were again top of the charts with veteran midfielder Joao Moutinho.
The Portuguese managed just one assist all season, but racked up a whopping 727 Creativity points during the campaign, suggesting seven assists would have been a more accurate reflection of his work.
Ross Barkley, Rodri, Kalvin Phillips and Reece James all recorded between 200 and 300 Creativity per assist meanwhile – the assists they deserve could be right around the corner.
Threat and Creativity could be the key to unlocking the next form player in the Premier League – will you find him first?
