World Cup 2022 Group C permutations: What do Argentina, Poland, Saudi Arabia and Mexico need to go through?

Lionel Messi
(Image credit: Getty)

One of the most exciting World Cup 2022 sections concludes on Wednesday night when all four teams in Group C will be hoping to reach the last 16.

This group has produced the biggest upset of the tournament so far, when Saudi Arabia came from behind to beat Argentina in their opening game.

Some Lionel Messi magic helped the South Americans respond by defeating Mexico in their second game.

However, they still face a big task to avoid an early elimination as they are now up against table-topping Poland. 

Group C fixtures

  • 7pm GMT: Poland v Argentina
  • 7pm GMT: Mexico v Saudi Arabia 

Who needs what to reach the last 16?

1. Poland (4pts, GD+2)

Avoiding defeat against Argentina will send Poland through.

Things are more complicated if they lose. In that case, they would go out if Saudi Arabia beat Mexico.

If they lose and the Saudis draw, it will come down to goal difference. If they lose and Mexico win, it will also come down to goal difference – in that case, a four-goal swing would be needed.

2. Argentina (3pts, GD+1)

Beating Poland will guarantee Argentina a place in the last 16, while they are out if they lose.

A draw would make things more complex. Then, they would need the other game between Mexico and Saudi Arabia to finish as a draw too, or for Mexico to win but fail to move above them on goal difference.

An Argentina draw and Saudi Arabia victory would see the Albiceleste knocked out.  

3. Saudi Arabia (3pts, GD-1)

A win against Mexico will send Saudi Arabia through, while if they lose they’re out.

If they draw, they will need Poland to beat Argentina to progress. If the Saudis draw and Argentina win, it will come down to goal difference against Poland.

 4. Mexico (1pt, GD-2)

Mexico must win. If they beat Saudi Arabia and Poland beat Argentina, they’re through.

If they win and Argentina vs Poland finishes as a draw, their fate will depend on how their goal difference matches up to the South Americans.

If Mexico win and Argentina win, it will come down to goal difference between the Mexicans and Poland.

Alasdair Mackenzie is a freelance journalist based in Rome, and a FourFourTwo contributor since 2015. When not pulling on the FFT shirt, he can be found at Reuters, The Times and the i. An Italophile since growing up on a diet of Football Italia on Channel 4, he now counts himself among thousands of fans sharing a passion for Ross County and Lazio.