A trip to the highest-scoring team in the Premier League would give most teams shudders, but – not to put the curse on it or anything – Nottingham Forest have better reason than most to feel they may actually be able to keep Chelsea relatively quiet on Sunday afternoon.
The amount of noise Forest made about their points deduction and refereeing decisions against them last season made them incredibly easy to poke fun at. Meanwhile their league position – not helped by that very points deduction – would lead you to believe they were set to struggle in the new campaign.
Forest managed just a single Premier League clean sheet under Nuno Espirito Santo last season, against woeful West Ham in February. But the data suggests there was an element of bad luck in there that would balance itself out over the long term.
Nuno Espirito Santo has overseen a quiet revolution at Nottingham Forest
On the quiet, Nuno was overseeing a drastic improvement to their defensive work. At the time the Brazilian took over as manager last December, Forest had the tenth-best expected goals against (xGA) record in the Premier League at 1.57 per game.
That’s not bad by any means, especially not for a side who had a relegation-standard defensive record the year before. If we’re doling out credit for coaching’s role in that, due mention must go to Steve Cooper for overseeing the beginnings of Forest’s improvement.
But Nuno took it up another notch again: in his 21 games in charge last season, it improved to just 1.40 xGA per game, according to Understat. That may not sound too dramatic, but it is: it gave Forest the best such record in the division outside the runaway top three of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Forest have been able to maintain that into the new season, and sure enough, their luck has turned. Only Liverpool (two) have conceded fewer goals than Forest’s five, and only four sides (Liverpool, Tottenham, Fulham and Manchester City) have a better defensive record based on xGA than Forest.
You may point to a relatively kind fixture list there, but even against the one big boy they have faced – at Anfield, no less – Forest have held firm.
They are so far the only team to keep a clean sheet against Arne Slot’s side, who registered a xG (1.17) that is almost half the Reds’ next-worst in the league this season (2.10, away to Manchester United).
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Nottingham Forest have nailed their centre-back recruitment
That is not just down to coaching, but also personnel. Matz Sels has been an improvement over the error-prone Matt Turner since arriving from Strasbourg in January. Neco Williams has won plaudits for his improved form at right-back, while Ola Aina, Harry Toffolo and new Alex Moreno have all done respectably honest jobs on the left.
Defensive midfielder Ibrahim Sangare arrived to much hype last summer only to spend most of the season injured and look in poor sorts when he did play, but had a brilliant start to this campaign before being curtailed by another injury that looks set to keep him out for the next couple of months; fortunately, Ryan Yates’ committed approach will help cover for his absence.
It’s at centre-back that Forest have recruited most magnificently, though. Murillo has been a particular revelation since arriving from Corinthians on the summer transfer deadline day last year, winning the club’s player of the year award for his exceptional performances at the heart of the Forest defence.
Willy Boly was the best of Murillo’s many partners last season, but Forest have found more stability by adding Nikola Milenkovic to the ranks this summer to serve as a more consistent and high-quality sidekick.
The Serbian international has been a particularly crucial addition in the air, where Forest particularly struggled at the back last season.
A third of the goals they conceded (22 out of 67) were from non-penalty set pieces (33%) – comfortably the worst record in the Premier League for both raw quantity and percentage of total goals. This season, just one of the five goals Forest have conceded has been from a free kick or corner.
Nuno himself, meanwhile, has credited the work done by players further up the pitch to help keep opponents at arm’s length. As reported by the BBC, the manager said on Friday: "Defending] always important, no matter who your opponent. You have to realise what strengths they have and how to control them. The team has been solid and compact but it's about teamwork.
“It’s not only the defensive line and midfield, it starts with pressure from the front. It's going to be very important against Chelsea because they have good players and play good football."
One word of caution is that despite enjoying a very healthy boost to their goalscoring and xG numbers after Nuno’s arrival last summer, Forest have not started this season terribly impressively in front of goal. They have managed just six goals so far this season - though even their relatively modest xG tally suggests they should have had two more.
Nuno earned a bad reputation for being overly negative while at Tottenham, but believes that simply being more clinical in front of goal would go a long way for his current side – where, it must be said, there is far less expectation on him to set up a side to dominate games and constantly play on the front foot.
Fow now, though, what Forest are doing is working – and if they can keep it up, they would finally be able to enjoy a Premier League season properly without the looming threat of relegation hanging over their heads.
